The mechanism

The Conversion Debt Ledger

Four stages: audit against research rather than opinion, price every leak in dollars, ship the fixes in Shopify, then reconcile what was claimed against what came back. Thirty days, start to reconciliation.

Stage 01 · Days 1–3

Audit against published research, not taste.

Every leak on the ledger has to be traceable to something outside my own opinion. That’s the whole point of running it as a ledger.

Your store gets scored across all 10 page types — homepage, navigation, collection, product, cart, checkout, post-purchase, mobile, technical and accessibility — against the body of conversion research that already exists. Baymard’s 150,000 hours of UX research. Conversion.com’s repository of 20,000 experiments. Invesp’s 36,600. The industry has been documenting what works on a DTC product page and checkout for fifteen years; the work here is establishing which of it applies to you.

Then a competitive benchmark: three direct competitors, compared on the specific elements that drive the purchase decision — not a general vibe check. When someone leaves your page for the brand next to yours, this is the section that tells you what they found there.

You get the ledger inside 72 hours of kickoff. Not three weeks. It’s a diagnosis, and a diagnosis you wait a month for is a bad one.

Stage 02 · Days 3–5

Attach a dollar figure to every line.

A list of UX suggestions asks you to rank problems by taste. A priced ledger ranks them by recoverable revenue, which is the only ranking a founder can actually act on.

Each line is built from your own numbers: how many sessions hit that step, what share drop out there, what a recovered session is worth at your AOV, and how much of that gap the documented fix has been shown to close. The arithmetic is on the page for every line, so you can argue with any of it.

How one line is priced

Worked example
ASessions reaching the cart, per month14,200
BAbandoning at the shipping-cost reveal31%
CShare the documented fix recovers Conservative end of the published range12%
DAverage order value$72
A × B × C × D · line value $3,802 / mo
Every figure on the ledger is an estimate with its inputs shown. What isn’t an estimate is the reconciliation at day 30 — that one is measured.
Stage 03 · Days 5–25

Ship the fixes. In your Shopify, by me.

This is the part nobody under $7,500 a month does, and it is the entire reason the previous audit you paid for didn’t move revenue.

You see a before/after mockup of every priority fix first, so nothing ships that you haven’t seen. You approve or reject — rejecting is fine, it just comes off the ledger. Then I implement in a duplicated theme, review it with you, and publish.

Your total obligation across the 30 days: one kickoff call, and one approval pass on the mockups. No dev ticket, no sprint, no “let me check with our developer.”

You also get GA4 funnel tracking and a revenue-per-session baseline installed properly. That stays yours permanently, whether or not we ever work together again — it’s the instrumentation that makes the next 12 months legible.

Stage 04 · Day 30

Reconcile: claimed against recovered.

Revenue per session on the pages I touched, 30 days after launch against 30 days before. Line by line, what I said it was worth and what it actually returned.

Some lines will beat the estimate and some will miss it. Both go in the report. A reconciliation that only shows the winners isn’t a reconciliation, it’s a case study — and you can already tell the difference.

If revenue per session hasn’t increased, this is also the call where I refund you in full. The conditions are published, in advance, so there is nothing to negotiate at the end.

The metric

Why revenue per session, and not conversion rate.

Conversion rate

Punishes you for growing

  • Scale ad spend, traffic gets colder, conversion rate falls — on a site that got better.
  • Ignores AOV entirely, so bundling, upsells and shipping thresholds count for nothing.
  • Moves with your channel mix, which means it moves for reasons neither of us controls.
  • Would make an outcome guarantee unwinnable, which is exactly why most agencies report on it.
Revenue per session

Tracks the thing you actually care about

  • Robust to a shifting traffic mix — a colder audience shows up honestly.
  • Captures AOV gains, so every kind of win counts.
  • Multiplies straight back out to revenue: sessions × RPS.
  • Measurable in 30 days at 20,000 sessions, which is what makes the guarantee real.
On A/B testing

Testing is second, not never.

I’m not against testing. I’m against selling it as the entry product to a store that hasn’t paid down its known debt yet — and to a store that mathematically cannot reach significance on the metric being tested.

At 95% confidence and 80% power, detecting a 10% lift needs roughly this much traffic. The floor moves dramatically depending on which metric you test:

What you measureTypical baselineSessions needed · 10% MDE
Session → purchase2.5%~125,000
Product page → add to cart~10%~29,000
Checkout step → complete~45%~4,000
RevenueSessions / moOrders / moPurchase-rate test at 10% MDE
$1M~48,000~1,2002.6 months — not viable
$2M~95,000~2,400~1.3 months — marginal
$3M~143,000~3,600~1 month — workable
$5M~238,000~6,000~2 weeks — viable
$10M~476,000~12,000~1 week — real programme

Assumes roughly $1.75 revenue per session (2.5% conversion at $70 AOV). Verticals vary — food and beverage runs nearer $1.18, electronics nearer $1.95 — so this gets recomputed for your store, not assumed.

Two consequences. First: below roughly $3M, a sitewide purchase-rate test takes so long that the answer arrives after the season it was meant to inform. Second: proximate metrics are far cheaper to test — but they can move opposite to revenue, more add-to-carts and fewer purchases. So a proximate win never counts until revenue per session confirms it didn’t regress.

Once the known debt is paid down and you’re above roughly 140,000 sessions a month, you’re at the frontier and testing is the correct next move. That’s the tier-2 programme — and if you’re not there yet, I’ll say so.

Next step

Get the ledger in 72 hours.

One kickoff call, Shopify and GA4 access, and the first version of your ledger lands three days later — priced, ranked, and with the arithmetic shown.